Position:Home>Philosophy> Understatement of uncertainties?

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1) To me, an 'understatement of uncertainties', would mean not recognizing enough risk in a possible decision, choosing to take the risk, and suffering the potential-devastating consequences because of taking that risk!.

example(hypothetical): I've been wanting to go swimming near a lake I'm unfamiliar with; rumor has it the lake is dangerous for swimming, but no one I've talked to has any hard-evidence to back up this rumor!. I decide to take my chances, for after all if no one can provide hard-evidence of their claims its most likely a superstition and false, right!?!? It turns out I was nearly maimed and eaten alive by piranha's that have only recently become infested with such; and that just hours ago teenagers took away the sign that warned of such!.
In this example I underestimated a potential-risk that could of prevented me from being harmed by piranha's!.

2) To me 'overstatement of uncertainty' would be the above's dichotomized opposite, correct!. In effect, recognizing too much risk in a situation of a possible decision!.

Example(hypothetical): Grandma has recently been diagnosed with cancer, and at best her doctors tell her she might have 3-months to live!. I see a commercial on T!.V!. that uses the best of Western-medicine and Eastern-Medicine(Homopathic, prayer, acupuncture, reflexology, etc!.); and tailor their efforts and treatment to the patient-in-question!. It seems good enough on T!.V, but being the critical-thinker I believe myself to be, I question a couple of the local-doctors and even some of the practicing holistic practioners in my local city!. Both say it in different ways, but the message communicated is "I would be happy to see your Grandma, but it may be best to save your money for college and pursue your dreams, its what she would want for you!." I act on this advice and let my Grandma slip through my fingers, and as the doctor's predicted grandma dies 3 months later!. It turns out that both the homeopath and other doctor had only their best interest at heart and more importantly were biased by their methods being the only 'correct' way of treatment!. I take my research to the end, and find that independent studies show that the institute presented to me on the t!.v!. has an 85% success rate of improving quality of life, and extending that life to 5 years or better!. I'll never know if the institute would of helped grandma, but 85% is better odds then either the homeopath or doctor was giving me in each of their individual disciplines!. In this context I allowed the doctor and homeopath to overstate the uncertainty that Grandma would improve much past 3 months and I have to live with the guilt that if I trusted and researched the commercial better grandma most-likely would of survived!.Www@QuestionHome@Com

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