Position:Home>History> After the battles of Trebia, Trasimene, and Cannae, how close was Rome to being

Very close: Polybius, our best source for the period, states (Book III!.118):
"As for the Romans, after this defeat they gave up all hope of maintaining their supremacy over the Italians, and began to fear for their native soil, and indeed for their very existence, since they expected Hannibal to appear at any moment!."

Hannibal, however, let the opportunity pass: instead of marching on Rome immediately after the battle, he turned his efforts to securing defections by Rome's Italian allies (many did) and seeking support (money and reinforcements) from the Carthaginian senate (it refused)!. As one of his cavalry commanders (Maharbal) commented (Livy XXII!.51):
"You know, Hannibal, how to win a fight; you do not know how to use your victory!."

The Roman historian Livy, from whom the above quote comes, went on to say (Livy XXII!.51):
"It is generally believed that the day's delay was the salvation of the City and the Empire!."

The Romans, despite simultaneously losing their army in Cisalpine Gaul in an ambush (Roman military leadership was still rather variable in quality) used the respite to gather together their remaining resources, put the city in an effective state of defence and raise four new legions from men still under military age (17 rather than 18)!. This took time, and before it could be done the authorities had to restore order (Livy XXII!.54):
"Never, without an enemy actually within the gates, had there been such terror and confusion within the city!."

The judgement of the principal ancient historians we use as sources for the period is that had Hannibal marched on Rome immediately after Cannae, it would have fallen!. For Livy, who is normally inclined to present everything Roman in the best possible light, to state this, shows how true it was!.

So the answer is: very, very close indeed: Hannibal had Rome (and a successful conclusion to the war) within reach, and he threw the chance away!.Www@QuestionHome@Com

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It was a very close thing!. Those three battles, and particularly Cannae, cost the Romans tens of thousands of troops!. These could not be replaced rapidly!. Hannibal could march to the walls of Rome itself unopposed!. Had Rome's subject tribes and allies turned against Rome, Carthage would have won the war!.
Had Hannibal had more support from Carthage, or from the other Italians, he might have succeeded!. But he couldn't carry out an extended siege, lacking both manpower and equipment to lay siege to Rome!. The Romans themselves had learned by this time, and refused to engage Hannibal directly!. Instead, they played a waiting game, training their troops, harassing Hannibal's supplies and reinforcements, and ultimately striking straight at Carthage itself!. This last move would force Hannibal to abandon Italy and return home to defend Carthage!. This time his military genius would not be enough to overcome the Roman training and his own troops' unreadiness!. Carthage would fall, and Hannibal would remain a Roman boogyman for the next three decades, constantly chased by the Romans and always seeking an employer who would and could stand up to the Romans!.
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You already have two excellent ,I’d say “classic” answers, so all I can add is that since those times Historians are hard put to explaining why Hannibal chose not to march on Rome itself!. One school of thought is based on his socio-cultural context!. Hannibal’s society hailed from the Middle East (Phoenician transplants to Carthage), where “superstition”, “Oracles” and “Diviners” played a major role in everybody’s life!. The Romans themselves were not immune, having been influenced by the Etruscan “Auruspices”, but the Carthaginians based their whole way of life on “the Fates”!. Being sailors and merchants they were never far away from disaster and leaned heavily on superstition!. It is believed that a series of “Divinations” warned Hannibal that if he faced the “Walls” of his enemy unprepared, he would go under!. This accounts for his undue caution!. Others argue that the “walls”, were the Roman (Samnite) shields of her legions!. The result was “dithering”, which cost him a well earned victory!. His later history and tragic fate, seems to confirm this theory!.Www@QuestionHome@Com

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