What if ... McLellan's "war of posts" had worked in 1862?

Question:One thing is for sure, at South Mountain and then again at Sharpsburg, McLellan proved himself unable to destroy the Army of Northern Virginia even under the best possible circumstances. So what if the Army of the Potomac had actually seized (or at least burned and pillaged) Richmond in 1862, but not captured or destroyed the Army of Northern Virgina? Would the Rebellion have continued without Tredegar Iron Works, Davis' political framework at Richmond, and the Richmond warehouses (the Confeds. could have easily evacuated their treasury), Would the the loss of the Confed. Capitol City have been a mortal wound to Confederate morale? Or would Jefferson David and Lee simply have retreated to N.C. and continued the War?

Best Answer - Chosen by Asker: One thing is for sure, at South Mountain and then again at Sharpsburg, McLellan proved himself unable to destroy the Army of Northern Virginia even under the best possible circumstances. So what if the Army of the Potomac had actually seized (or at least burned and pillaged) Richmond in 1862, but not captured or destroyed the Army of Northern Virgina? Would the Rebellion have continued without Tredegar Iron Works, Davis' political framework at Richmond, and the Richmond warehouses (the Confeds. could have easily evacuated their treasury), Would the the loss of the Confed. Capitol City have been a mortal wound to Confederate morale? Or would Jefferson David and Lee simply have retreated to N.C. and continued the War?

If McClellan had captured Richmond early in the war, I think it might have ended the war. At that point, the Confederacy would not have had a string of victories (in fact, that had almost all losses in the West for the entire war), and losing their capital would have been a highly symbolic event. And yes they would have missed Tredegar Iron Works terribly. And if Virginia had been evacuated as a state, you also have to question the impact that would have had on the Army of Northern Virginia--does Lee continue to defend his "State" when it is no longer in question? How many of the members of the Stonewall Brigade decide they need to go home? The Confederacy also loses the breadbasket of the Shenandoah Valley (which was a valuable source of food all war until Sheridan resolved that issue).

Later in the war, the fall of Richmond would have less impact because both sides were more morally invested in the war, there had been too many deaths to not have some firebrands who'd refuse to give up just because a capital city went down.

Finally, the concept of "just retreating to NC" isn't as simple a solution as it sounds. Significant portions of NC (more than any other Confederate state) contained portions of what were called "home-grown yankees" and at least one NC county was so supportive of the North that it was regarded as enemy territory. All of the NC ports were under fierce attack and faced naval and amphibious invasion from year 2 of the war on.

Interesting. Yes the Confederate government would have moved as they did towards the end of the war. Mc Clelland, however, even with those victories still suffered the fatal flaw of being to cautious and would either have let the Army of Northern Virginia have a chance to regroup or emboldened by some early victories would have posed a bigger challenge to Lincoln. Sooner or later McClellan would have been removed. It might have taken longer for Grant to come to the forefront in Lincoln's considerations but I'm sure the end result of the Civil War would be the same.